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The 2016 Presidential Race: New Hampshire

Yesterday in the New Hampshire primaries, Donald Trump won on the Republican side and Bernie Sanders won on the Democrat side. Donald Trump got first place with 35% on the Republican side. John Kasich won 2nd place with 16%. Now everything gets closer. Ted Cruz got 3rd place with 12%, Bush and Rubio tied for 4th at 11%, Christie was 6th at 7%, Fiorina was 7th with 4%, and Carson was the final place, 8th at 2%. After months of campaigning, Bernie Sanders is up considerably from October when an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had him at 31% and Hillary Clinton at 61% and even a YouGov/Economist poll having Sanders at 23% with Clinton at 48%. In Iowa, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton tied in the caucuses, but due to several coin flips, the Democrat party “determined” that Hillary Clinton won the caucuses. Now, about a week later, in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders has 60% and Hillary Clinton had 38% a complete flip from October.

These results show a shift in support from the more well-established candidates such as Hillary Clinton with the conventional Democrat views to less known person with less political experience who has ideas considered “radical” by some in his party. This trend is not only showing in the Democrat party, but also on the Republican side. In Iowa, Ted Cruz, a freshman senator from Texas won with 27.6% of the vote and Donald Trump not far behind at second place with 24.3% of the vote. Both are outsiders. Donald Trump, unlike Cruz and Sanders has never held political office on the local, state, or federal level.

Many were surprised by how well Trump is doing in the polls and these early primary and caucus votes. Both Trump and Sanders are saying the things people want to hear. Trump uses emotion to gain votes. Unlike Trump, Dr. Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina have also never held public office, but are not doing as well in the polls. Many believe this is because neither are saying things as radical as Trump. Trump has said to secure the border, he will build a wall then make Mexico pay for it. He still says this even though, Felipe Calderon, the former Mexican President said, “We are not going to pay a single cent for such a stupid wall!” Neither Carson nor Fiorina get much media attention. Trump attacks people personally on the campaign trail. Trump says Dr. Ben Carson, the first person ever to separate conjoined twins at the head, was just an “ok doctor”, even daring to say Dr. Carson has a “pathological disorder” identical to that of a child sex offender. Trump then made fun of Megyn Kelly, a debate moderator on the first Republican debate. Trump attacks people personally with, usually, false information. Many say Trump should just stick to the issues, but he says there will be no apologies.

Since we’ve seen Trump do so well in Iowa and New Hampshire, maybe the personal attacks are working for now, but some commentators worry that a Trump nominee could hurt Republicans in a general election because most people dislike him with an ABC/Washington Post favorability poll showing that 63% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. Actually, no poll has had Donald Trump’s favorability over 42% since September. With a large general population disliking him, it could mean trouble for the general election. Trump is also not to popular among conservative circles. Trump was an extremely liberal Democrat. He endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2012, however now in 2015 and 2016 he’s become a Republican overnight. Many don’t think the change is genuine.

On the Republican side, Trump isn’t the only candidate doing well. Ted Cruz won Iowa and got 3rd place in New Hampshire. Cruz is gaining ground with conservatives. Marco Rubio surprised some analysis in Iowa last week when he placed a close second less than 1 percentage point away from beating Donald Trump. Rubio is a favorite with the Republican moderates, those who aren’t liberal or conservative, but in the middle.

However, when one candidate does good, that means they are taking votes from another candidate. Sometimes, this can be literal. On the day of the Iowa caucuses, Dr. Ben Carson’s campaign told CNN that Dr. Carson would not go on to New Hampshire or South Carolina and have no events there, but instead go home to Florida before going to the National Prayer Breakfast.

On air CNN’s Jake Tapper said, “to be announcing that you’re going to go home to rest for a few days, not going on to the next site. Plus, he’s already announced that he’s going to be coming out and speaking at 9:15 local and 10:15 Eastern, no matter whether or not we know the results, because he wants to get home and get ahead of the storm.”

Dana Bash responded to him saying, “Look, if you want to be President of the United States, you don’t go home to Florida. I mean, that’s bottom line. That’s the end of the story. If you want to signal to your supporters that you want it, that you’re hungry for it, that you want them to get out and and campaign, you’ve got to be out there doing it too. And he’s not doing it. It’s very unusual.”

Some took Dr. Carson’s move to go home instead of campaigning and having no events in New Hampshire that week meant he was going to drop out. A Ted Cruz staffer called Iowa Precinct Captains with the following message, “… [I’m] calling to get to a precinct captain, and it has just been announced that Ben Carson is taking a leave of absence from the campaign trail, so it is very important that you tell any Ben Carson voters that for tonight, uh, that they not waste a vote on Ben Carson, and vote for Ted Cruz. He is taking a leave of absence from his campaign. All right? Thank you. Bye.” Iowa Representative, Steve King tweeted, “Skipping NH & SC is the equivalent of suspending. Too bad this information won’t get to all caucus goers.” It is reported that Marco Rubio also informed his supporters of this. “Florida Senator Marco Rubio‘s campaign worked actively to spread the message that Carson was leaving the presidential race. These actions were reported on Twitter by Conrad Close who, according to his Twitter profile, is the managing editor of Outset Magazine.” Only Cruz has been accused by Carson for trying to steal Carson’s votes. Cruz says it was a mistake based on CNN’s false reporting. CNN has said it has done nothing wrong.

Besides the possible, “accidental” theft of Carson’s votes, some other candidates didn’t do too good in Iowa. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum both got between 1 and 2% of the vote. They both dropped out just after the caucus. Rick Santorum announced he would endorse Marco Rubio. Mike Huckabee has not shown support for any other specific candidate. Rand Paul had a higher 4.5% in Iowa and after placing 5th in the caucus shocked fans by announcing that he too would drop out of the race. Just today, the day after the New Hampshire primaries, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, who placed 6th and 7th respectively, dropped out. A less crowded field means it is more likely Republicans will get the person they want.

While it looks like after the Republicans have dropped out their votes will go to other Republican candidates. However, after a recent incident at a Bernie Sanders event, that might not be true for the Democrats. The Democrat field has 2 contenders, Bernie Sanders, a Senator from Vermont, a self-proclaimed socialist (for more information about socialism click here) and Hillary Clinton, former Senator from New York, former Secretary of State, and wife of former President Bill Clinton. What I mean is if Bernie Sanders were to drop out, his supporters might not give their vote to Hillary Clinton. Why? I’ll let Politico explain the incident that makes me think this.

“The room at Bernie Sanders’ rally here turned ice cold when Hillary Clinton’s speech took over the televisions here.

The crowd booed loudly at first, then cheered when the sound cut out. The sound soon returned and Clinton was drowned out by further boos when she said “I’m a progressive who gets things done.”

It escalated from there: Chants of “She’s a liar!” took over the room before the campaign just entirely shut off the stream, cutting away from MSNBC entirely.”

The FBI is currently investigating Hillary Clinton for illegally using a private server for governmental purposes while Secretary of State under President Obama, which she has admitted to. It is illegal to have classified information on a private server like that, which she denies. It appears according to everyone from members of Congress, to former and current FBI agents, and prosecutors that she is guilty, but there has been no official verdict from the FBI. Clinton has been accused of lying in the past. After a terror attack in Benghazi, Libya where 4 Americans were killed, Clinton told the victims’ families that it was a youtube video that caused this attack, when she knew that was false. In the 1990s, she has been accused of lying about a property scandal known as Whitewater and about her husbands relationships. It makes sense that Sanders supporters call her a liar, but that could hurt the Democrat party greatly if Clinton is the nominee.

The next primaries are Nevada and South Carolina, February 20th and the week of the 21st. After that, it’s “Super Tuesday”, March 1st when Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming have their primaries. After that, we can expect several more people to drop out leaving 2 or 3 Republican candidates left. I personally expect Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton to both remain in the Democrat race for President until the Democratic National Convention in the summer when the Democrats choose their nominee for President, unless Hillary Clinton is taken to trial due to her possible illegal use of a private email server in which case I would expect her to drop out and Bernie Sanders would automatically be the nominee. We’ll see how it all plays out. I want to hear from you and hear your opinion. Please mail us a letter at Macon Kids Magazine P.O. Box 304 Bolingbroke, GA 31004.


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